Saturday, August 1, 2009

Iran and Israel . . .Hot Air and Physics

Israel is facing the promise of annihilation from the ruling government of Iran.

Two Israeli governments have permitted themselves to be dithered (if that verb can be used in the passive voice) for at least two years by two US governments = nothing that anyone, anywhere, should be proud of.

The election protests in Iran have met with appalling repression and have given vain hope that military force will be unnecessary. More likely to be the case is that military force will make Iranian government reform more possible and more likely in the disorganization that will follow the Israeli strike.

At the moment, the timing comes down to physics:
  • when Iranian bomb deployment becomes inevitable
  • heat and humidity that affect the fuel/bomb/missile loads of the Israeli aircraft.
This has been an immense ugliness since Jimmy Carter failed to support the Shah and failed to support the frail democratic government that replaced the Shah - shades of Kerensky and Lenin's October Revolution that has made democracy impossible in Russia ever since.

There was a bizarre disinterest from both of W's Secretaries of State - Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice - in supporting pro-American demonstrations in Iran. Colin Powell replied to a question about his lack of interest thusly, "I don't think we should involve ourselves in a family dispute in Iran." Much, much better to let them develop nuclear weapons, rape and murder democratic demonstrators and put Israel in the inevitable position of contesting its annihilation.

All a matter of hot air and physics.

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